BULLETS, THEN CANNONBALLS

Embracing the Incremental Approach: Bullets Then Cannonballs

In Jim Collins’ book “Great By Choice,” he introduces a powerful concept: bullets then cannonballs. This idea emphasizes the importance of tackling challenges incrementally. For anyone looking to grow and succeed, understanding and applying this concept is crucial. Simply put, it’s about taking one step at a time—learning to walk before you run.

Every challenge you face should be approached as a step-by-step process. Here’s a little secret about those who seem more experienced: they often use the bullets then cannonballs technique to navigate difficult situations. While many might rush to find a quick solution to maintain momentum, true leaders recognize the value of moving incrementally. This approach allows them to gather essential information and make informed decisions about the best next step.

The phrases “going out on a limb,” “jumping into the deep end,” or “over the tips of your skis” all stem from the idea of moving too quickly towards a solution without having all the necessary information. However, if you wait to gather every piece of information, you might never move forward. This is where the “bullets then cannonballs” strategy shines. By using inexpensive, targeted resources to test and refine your approach (bullets), you can then confidently commit to a full-scale solution (cannonballs) once you’re sure of your aim.

This incremental approach builds trust, confidence, and clarity within your team. As Robert Noyce wisely said, “You may not find what you were looking for, but you may find something else equally important.”

Here is an excerpt from Jim’s book explaining the concept

“Picture yourself at sea, a hostile ship bearing down on you. You have a limited amount of gunpowder. You take all your gunpowder and use it to fire a big cannonball. The cannonball flies out over the ocean…and misses the target, off by 40 degrees. You turn to your stockpile and discover that you’re out of gunpowder. You die. But suppose instead that when you see the ship bearing down, you take a little bit of gunpowder and fire a bullet. It misses by 40 degrees. You make another bullet and fire. It misses by 30 degrees. You make a third bullet and fire, missing by only 10 degrees. The next bullet hits—ping!—the hull of the oncoming ship. Now, you take all the remaining gunpowder and fire a big cannonball along the same line of sight, which sinks the enemy ship. You live.

1. A bullet is a low-cost, low-risk, and low-distraction test or experiment.
2. Bullets to empirically validate what will actually work. Based on that empirical validation, they then con concentrate their resources to fire a cannonball, enabling large returns from concentrated bets.  
3. There are two types of cannonballs, calibrated and uncalibrated. A calibrated cannonball has confirmation based on actual experience—empirical validation—that a big bet will likely prove successful. Launching an uncalibrated cannonball means placing a big bet without empirical validation.   Uncalibrated cannonballs can lead to calamity. 
4. Periodically a mistake of firing an uncalibrated cannonball will occur, self-correct quickly. 
5. Failure to fire cannonballs, once calibrated, leads to mediocre results.
6. The idea is not to choose between bullets or cannonballs but to fire bullets first, then fire cannonballs.

The difficult task is to marry relentless discipline with creativity, neither letting discipline inhibit creativity nor letting creativity erode discipline.

Which of the following behaviors do we most need to increase?  

1. Firing enough bullets  
2. Resisting the temptation to fire uncalibrated cannonballs  
3. Committing, by converting bullets into cannonballs once you have empirical validation“

Whether you’re solving a problem, addressing a cost issue, or managing material shortages, remember to take a step back and approach it incrementally. Start with bullets, then move to cannonballs. This methodical approach will lead to more effective and sustainable solutions and build confidence and trust with your team.

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